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The Cedar Croft Consulting 5-Minute Mile News Issue 1 2025

Cedar Croft Consulting News

Minute 1: Restructuring Tailwinds

The lending landscape is facing significant challenges as we move into 2025. Key issues include:

Rising Criticized Loan Levels

  •  The median ratio of criticized loans to Tier 1 capital at US public banks has increased to 19.80% as of September 30, 2024, up from 14.87% at the end of 2023
  •  For the 100 largest US public banks, this ratio is even higher at 23.49%

Commercial Real Estate Concerns

  •  Office loan portfolios continue to struggle, with criticized office loans increasing 5% quarter-over-quarter at some banks.
  •  Approximately one-fourth of some banks’ CRE loan portfolios remain under scrutiny.

Interest Rate Pressures

  •  Despite some easing, interest rates remain elevated compared to historical lows.
  •  The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 100 basis points since the Federal Reserve began easing in September 2024
  •  The Federal Reserve projects just two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, fewer than markets expected

Maturing Loan Concerns

  •  $1.5 trillion in loans are maturing in 2025, including $5.4 billion in CMBS in October alone
  •  High-leverage projects are especially vulnerable to refinancing challenges

Minute 2: Strategies for Managing Criticized and Distressed Loans

Lenders are employing several strategies to manage criticized loans effectively:

Enhanced Monitoring and Risk Assessment

  •  Implementing more rigorous monitoring processes and regular credit reviews
  •  Using experienced credit review experts to analyze loan portfolios

Loan Restructuring and Modifications

  •  Offering loan modifications, such as extending maturity dates or adjusting interest rates
  •  Implementing forbearance agreements to temporarily suspend or reduce payments

Portfolio Management Strategies

  •  Diversifying loan portfolios across industries and geographies
  •  Implementing risk-based pricing and setting aside adequate loan loss reserves

Early Intervention and Workout Plans

  •  Developing action plans and workout agreements for seriously delinquent loans
  •  Encouraging borrowers to address financial problems early, potentially with the help of consultants

Collateral Management

  •  Regularly assessing and monitoring the value of collateral
  •  Ensuring proper documentation and perfection of security interests

Distressed Loan Sales

  •  Conducting portfolio sales to dispose of potentially troubled loans in bulk
  •  Engaging loan sales advisors to market and sell non-performing or sub-performing loans

Minute 3: Chapter 22 Filings

2024 has seen a continuation of the “Chapter 22” filing trend from 2023:

  •  Total bankruptcy filings increased by 15% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023
  •  Commercial Chapter 11 filings increased by 36% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023
  •  Notable “Chapter 22” cases include LTL Management, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy again immediately following the dismissal of its prior case, and most recently Joann, filing for the second time within a year.

Factors Contributing to Chapter 22 Filings

  •  Economic challenges such as high inflation and rising interest rates
  •  Business conditions deteriorated more than expected after initial bankruptcies
  •  Unresolved issues from the first bankruptcy proceedings

Read Cedar Croft’s past article Chapter 22 Is Not Necessarily a Bad Thing for an editorial viewpoint.

Minute 4: Quick Intervals

Artificial Intelligence – Rabbit R1 Update

As reported in the last newsletter, the initial release of the Rabbit R1 did not live up to the hype generated at the 2024 Consumer Electronics Show. It was a major disappointment to many users, including myself.

As a result, the device sat in my desk drawer, unused for several months, until the teach mode beta was released in November. It allows users to create custom AI agents that automate tasks on websites without coding skills. This feature enables users to train the AI by demonstrating actions, which the agent can then replicate and adapt for similar tasks.

The teach mode beta has received mixed reviews:

Positive Aspects

  •  Accessibility for non-coders
  •  Customization capabilities for various websites and tasks
  •  Potential for cross-platform functionality

Challenges and Criticisms

  •  Speed issues with new instructions taking 5-6 seconds on average to process
  •  Bugs and glitches typical of a beta release
  •  Limited functionality compared to initial promises

The company continues to work on improvements based on user feedback, with ongoing over-the-air updates. I feel the Rabbit is still a device ahead of its time and I recommend potential buyers wait for further development and improvements before considering a purchase.

The 2025 Consumer Electronics Show

This annual event in Las Vegas showcased a range of innovative technologies. Highlights included AI-powered PCs and wearables, stretchable TV screens, and advanced smart home devices. Other notable presentations were electric salt spoons for healthier eating, wearable memory aids, and neural earbuds for hands-free device control.

Perhaps the most exciting announcement at CES 2025 was NVIDIA’s introduction of Agentic AI, a real-time assistant that streamlines consumer workflows, and the GeForce RTX 50 graphics card.

Minute 5: Cedar Croft News

Current and recent engagements:

Quick Service Restaurant Chain, Northeast US

As a follow-on to an earlier engagement, Cedar Croft Consulting has been engaged as Interim CFO and Strategic Advisor to a quick-service restaurant chain with operations in the US Northeast and Southwest. In this role, Cedar Croft will assist the owners in establishing an expansion plan and securing the capital required.

Wholesale Bakery, Northeast US

A privately held wholesale bakery and food production company recently moved to the workout department with its senior lender due to cash flow from operations no longer supporting debt service following interest rate increases. The company engaged Cedar Croft Consulting as a Financial Advisor to identify and evaluate available options and lead negotiations with its senior lender. A recapitalization plan has been accepted by the senior lender.

Engineering Services Firm, Washington, DC

Cedar Croft Consulting is engaged as a Financial Advisor for a second-generation-managed business providing aerospace and aeronautical engineering services as the prime or sub on government contracts. Cedar Croft’s role is to facilitate project financing and maintain lender relationships.

For more case studies, visit our website here.

Upcoming events

Cedar Croft is sponsoring and/or attending the following events in Q1 2025:

Cedar Croft Consulting provides turnaround, workout, crisis and interim management, corporate restructuring, bankruptcy, financial advisory, and distressed M&A services to lower—and middle-market companies throughout the US and Canada. Contact Pat Walsh at pw****@ce******************.com or 917-674-2273.